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Resilience is the ability of ecosystems to maintain function while experiencing perturbation. Globally, forests are experiencing disturbances of unprecedented quantity, type, and magnitude that may diminish resilience. Early warning signals are statistical properties of data whose increase over time may provide insights into decreasing resilience, but there have been few applications to forests. We quantified four early warning signals (standard deviation, lag-1 autocorrelation, skewness, and kurtosis) across detrended time series of multiple ecosystem state variables at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA and analyzed how these signals have changed over time. Variables were collected over periods from 25 to 55 years from both experimentally manipulated and reference areas and were aggregated to annual timesteps for analysis. Long-term (>50 year) increases in early warning signals of stream calcium, a key biogeochemical variable at the site, illustrated declining resilience after decades of acid deposition, but only in watersheds that had previously been harvested. Trends in early warning signals of stream nitrate, a critical nutrient and water pollutant, likewise exhibited symptoms of declining resilience but in all watersheds. Temporal trends in early warning signals of some of groups of trees, insects, and birds also indicated changing resilience, but this pattern differed among, and even within, groups. Overall, ∼60% of early warning signals analyzed indicated decreasing resilience. Most of these signals occurred in skewness and kurtosis, suggesting ‘flickering’ behavior that aligns with emerging evidence of the forest transitioning into an oligotrophic condition. The other ∼40% of early warning signals indicated increasing or unchanging resilience. Interpretation of early warning signals in the context of system specific knowledge is therefore essential. They can be useful indicators for some key ecosystem variables; however, uncertainties in other variables highlight the need for further development of these tools in well-studied, long-term research sites.

 

Changes in the amount, intensity, and timing of precipitation are increasing hydrologic variability in many regions, but we have little understanding of how these changes are affecting freshwater species. Stream-breeding amphibians—a diverse group in North America—may be particularly sensitive to hydrologic variability during aquatic larval and metamorphic stages. Here, we tested the prediction that hydrologic variability in streams decreases survival through metamorphosis in the salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus , reducing recruitment to the adult stage. Using a 20-y dataset from Merrill Brook, a stream in northern New Hampshire, we show that abundance of G. porphyriticus adults has declined by ∼50% since 1999, but there has been no trend in larval abundance. We then tested whether hydrologic variability during summers influences survival through metamorphosis, using capture–mark–recapture data from Merrill Brook (1999 to 2004) and from 4 streams in the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (2012 to 2014), also in New Hampshire. At both sites, survival through metamorphosis declined with increasing variability of stream discharge. These results suggest that hydrologic variability reduces the demographic resilience and adaptive capacity of G. porphyriticus populations by decreasing recruitment of breeding adults. They also provide insight on how increasing hydrologic variability is affecting freshwater species, and on the broader effects of environmental variability on species with vulnerable metamorphic stages. 

Ecosystems constantly adjust to altered biogeochemical inputs, changes in vegetation and climate, and previous physical disturbances. Such disturbances create overlapping ‘biogeochemical legacies’ affecting modern nutrient mass balances. To understand how ‘legacies’ affected watershed‐ecosystem (WEC) biogeochemistry during five decades of studies within the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), we extended biogeochemical trends and hydrologic fluxes back to 1900 to provide an historical framework for our long‐term studies. This reconstruction showed acid rain peaking at HBEF in the late 1960s‐early 1970s near the beginning of the Hubbard Brook Ecosystem Study (HBES). The long‐term, parabolic arc in acid inputs to HBEF generated a corresponding arc in the ionic strength of stream water, with acid inputs generating increased losses of H⁺and soil base cations between 1963 and 1969 and then decreased losses after 1970. Nitrate release after disturbance is coupled with previous N‐deposition and storage, biological uptake, and hydrology. Sulfur was stored in soils from decades of acid deposition but is now nearly depleted. Total exports of base cations from the soil exchange pool represent one of the largest disturbances to forest and associated aquatic ecosystems at the HBEF since the Pleistocene glaciation. Because precipitation inputs of base cations currently are extremely small, such losses can only be replaced through the slow process of mineral weathering. Thus, the chemistry of stream water is extremely dilute and likely to become even more dilute than pre‐Industrial Revolution estimates. The importance of calculating chemical fluxes is clearly demonstrated in reconstruction of acid rain impacts during the pre‐measurement period. The aggregate impact of acid rain on WEC exports is far larger than historical forest harvest effects, and even larger than the most severe deforestation experiment (Watershed 2) at HBEF. A century of acid rain had a calcium stripping impact equivalent totwoW2 experiments involving complete deforestation and herbicide applications.